PolicyLens

Methodology note

Create a Britannia Card: calculation note

Assumptions behind the Create a Britannia Card scenario. Implementation detail is incomplete, so uncertainty is explicit.

View main policy page: Create a Britannia Card

Central fiscal result

+GBP 5.0bn - Net fiscal impact in 2027-28

Low case: -GBP 2.0bn. High case: +GBP 35.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Cardholders pay a one-off GBP 250,000 fee.
  • They receive a 10-year exemption on foreign income and gains.
  • Fees may be redistributed to low-paid workers.
  • Existing UK income remains taxable in the central case.

Affected population

  • Affected units are wealthy migrants, HMRC and low-paid dividend recipients.
  • Reported assumptions include thousands of cardholders.
  • Low-paid workers gain only if fees exceed tax losses.
  • High-end property markets may be indirectly affected.

Gross impact

  • 6,000 cardholders would raise GBP 1.5bn in fees.
  • Tax foregone can exceed fees for high-wealth households.
  • Central case assumes GBP 5bn net cost.
  • Low case assumes genuinely additional residents and revenue.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Card fee receipts: -GBP 1.5bn
  • Foreign-income and gains tax foregone: +GBP 5.0bn
  • Worker dividend distribution: +GBP 1.0bn
  • Administration and anti-avoidance: +GBP 0.5bn

Central net impact: +GBP 5.0bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes mostly additional residents who would not otherwise pay UK tax.
  • Central case assumes some tax-base erosion from would-be taxpayers.
  • High case follows warnings that exemptions could cost tens of billions.
  • Housing and investment effects are not fiscal-scored.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.5bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 5.0bn. Main scenario year.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 8.0bn. Behaviour and pass-through develop.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 10.0bn. Steady-state uncertainty persists.

Main source groups

  • S1: Reuters reports GBP 250,000 fee and 10-year exemption.
  • S2: Tax Policy Associates estimates large potential revenue losses.
  • S3: Tax-mobility and taxable-income studies inform location-response and avoidance assumptions.
  • S4: HMRC ready-reckoners are limited for non-dom-style regimes.
  • S5: No full official Reform cost model was found.