PolicyLens

Methodology note

Strengthen Equality Act enforcement: calculation note

Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.

View main policy page: Strengthen Equality Act enforcement

Central fiscal result

+GBP 0.8bn - Net public-finance impact in 2027-28

Low case: +GBP 0.2bn. High case: +GBP 3.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Increase workplace equality enforcement, reporting duties and penalties for persistent discrimination.
  • Baseline is current law and published official data unless stated.
  • Private business costs are excluded unless they affect tax or procurement.
  • Target year is 2027-28, with later years shown separately.

Affected population

  • Unit is employers and workers with Equality Act claims.
  • No official affected-worker count is used.
  • Public-employer compliance is directly fiscal.
  • Private compliance costs are mostly off-budget.

Gross impact

  • Official equality action-plan cost is about GBP 0.001bn EANDCB.
  • Central adds GBP 0.35bn regulator and enforcement capacity.
  • Public-employer compliance adds GBP 0.25bn.
  • Tribunal and legal-aid pressure adds GBP 0.25bn.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • EHRC and enforcement capacity: +GBP 0.35bn
  • Public-employer compliance: +GBP 0.25bn
  • Tribunal and legal support: +GBP 0.25bn
  • Penalty receipts: -GBP 0.05bn
  • Participation tax gains: +GBP 0.00bn

Central net impact: +GBP 0.8bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes targeted regulator action.
  • Central assumes stronger enforcement and reporting.
  • High case assumes broad duties and more tribunal claims.
  • Some employers reduce risky hiring.
  • Participation gains are not monetised.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.3bn. Capacity build.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 0.8bn. Stronger enforcement.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 0.9bn. Claims and audits rise.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 0.9bn. Steady state.

Main source groups

  • S1: S1 EHRC: strategic plan defines enforcement priorities.
  • S2: S2 ERA Table A10: equality action-plan cost under GBP 1m EANDCB.
  • S3: S3 Tribunal stats: 58,000 open single cases.
  • S4: S4 Autor/Kerr/Kugler: compliance costs can affect productivity.
  • S5: S5 OECD: labour-market institutions affect participation and job quality.