PolicyLens

Methodology note

Raise employer National Insurance: note

Models raise employer national insurance in 2027-28. The estimate is illustrative and excludes wider package interactions.

View main policy page: Raise employer National Insurance

Central fiscal result

-GBP 24.2bn - Net fiscal impact in 2027-28

Low case: -GBP 27.0bn. High case: -GBP 18.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Models raise employer national insurance by 2027-28.
  • Baseline is current policy or published departmental plans.
  • Central case uses published party or official anchors where available.
  • Wider manifesto interactions are excluded unless stated.

Affected population

  • Affected units are people, firms, households or providers depending on policy.
  • Direct exposure follows the manifesto or government target group.
  • Indirect exposure includes suppliers, workers, consumers and taxpayers.
  • Weakest counts are widened in the low and high cases.

Gross impact

  • Published anchor or scenario central is +GBP 24.2bn in 2027-28.
  • Gross costs or receipts are adjusted for behaviour and delivery risk.
  • Tax, benefit or procurement offsets are separated in the fiscal build-up.
  • The range is deliberately wider where implementation detail is thin.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Gross tax or receipt yield: -GBP 30.2bn
  • Behavioural and avoidance response: +GBP 4.8bn
  • Administration and compliance cost: +GBP 0.1bn
  • Other tax-base interactions: +GBP 1.1bn

Central net impact: -GBP 24.2bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes stronger delivery or receipts than central.
  • Central case applies moderate behavioural leakage and pass-through.
  • High case allows weaker delivery, larger take-up or higher costs.
  • Output effects follow incidence, capacity and investment channels.
  • Distributional gains do not automatically imply GDP gains.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: -GBP 6.0bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
  • 2027-28: -GBP 24.2bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
  • 2028-29: -GBP 24.2bn. Phased implementation and take-up.
  • 2029-30: -GBP 24.2bn. Phased implementation and take-up.

Main source groups

  • S1: HM Treasury: source for scenario or evidence.
  • S2: Office for Budget Responsibility: source for scenario or evidence.
  • S3: Journal of Public Economics: source for scenario or evidence.
  • S4: Handbook of Public Economics: source for scenario or evidence.