PolicyLens

Methodology note

Fund 10,000 extra police: calculation note

Scenario assumptions behind the Fund 10,000 extra police estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.

View main policy page: Fund 10,000 extra police

Central fiscal result

+GBP 0.8bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: +GBP 0.7bn. High case: +GBP 1.4bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Model GBP 800m annual police funding by 2028-29.
  • Recruitment target is 10,000 officers.
  • Baseline policing budgets are unchanged otherwise.
  • Crime benefits are not scored as Exchequer savings.

Affected population

  • Affected population is police forces and residents in hotspot areas.
  • Direct count is 10,000 extra officers in the pledge.
  • Indirect exposure includes courts, prisons and local businesses.
  • Benefits depend on geographic deployment.

Gross impact

  • Central spending: GBP 0.8bn from the party paper.
  • Training and setup are included within the high case.
  • Low case assumes slower recruitment in-year.
  • No automatic crime-cost saving is deducted.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Police recruitment and payroll: +GBP 0.8bn
  • Training and equipment: +GBP 0.1bn
  • Crime-related fiscal offsets: -GBP 0.1bn
  • Administration: GBP 0.0bn

Central net impact: +GBP 0.8bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes slower ramp-up and some crime offsets.
  • Central case follows the GBP 800m envelope.
  • High case assumes overtime, training and equipment overspend.
  • Hotspot targeting improves expected effectiveness.
  • Trust effects must be monitored, not assumed.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.2bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 0.6bn. Main ramp-up year.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 0.8bn. Target-year central estimate.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 0.8bn. Continuation at steady-state assumptions.

Main source groups

  • con-plan-2026: Conservative live policy page; used to identify current pledge wording.
  • con-crime-pdf-2026: Conservative crime paper; uses GBP 800m and 10,000 police pledge.
  • home-office-police-funding-2026: Home Office police funding statistics; policing spending baseline.
  • home-office-police-workforce-2025: Home Office workforce statistics; officer-count baseline.
  • obr-efo-mar-2026: OBR March 2026 forecast; fiscal and macro baseline.
  • braga-papachristos-hureau-2014: Hotspots policing meta-analysis; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.
  • sherman-weisburd-1995: Police patrol experiment; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.
  • draca-machin-witt-2011: Police and deterrence; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.