PolicyLens

Methodology note

Restrict social housing to UK nationals: calculation note

Scenario assumptions behind the Restrict social housing to UK nationals estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.

View main policy page: Restrict social housing to UK nationals

Central fiscal result

-GBP 0.8bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: -GBP 2.5bn. High case: +GBP 0.5bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Model new social lettings restricted to UK nationals by 2028-29.
  • Central case assumes limited additional savings from reallocations.
  • Baseline is 263,000 new social lettings in England in 2024-25.
  • Excludes any new social-home construction policy.

Affected population

  • Affected population is new applicant households, not existing tenants.
  • Most new lead tenants are already UK nationals.
  • Indirect exposure includes councils, temporary accommodation providers and private renters.
  • Vulnerable exemptions are unspecified and materially affect cost.

Gross impact

  • Central saving: lower migrant temporary-accommodation support about GBP 1.1bn.
  • Offset: homelessness, legal and emergency support about GBP 0.3bn.
  • High-cost case assumes councils absorb higher homelessness duties.
  • No housing-supply gain is assumed.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Lower social-housing and TA support: -GBP 1.1bn
  • Homelessness and emergency housing: +GBP 0.2bn
  • Administration and legal costs: +GBP 0.1bn
  • Local service spillovers: GBP 0.0bn

Central net impact: -GBP 0.8bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes large reduction in temporary-accommodation exposure.
  • Central case assumes most excluded households were already restricted by eligibility rules.
  • High-cost case assumes homelessness duties offset or exceed savings.
  • Private-rent pressure is local and not scored as Exchequer cost.
  • Queue effects benefit some households but do not increase housing supply.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: -GBP 0.2bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
  • 2027-28: -GBP 0.6bn. Main ramp-up year.
  • 2028-29: -GBP 0.8bn. Target-year central estimate.
  • 2029-30: -GBP 0.8bn. Continuation at steady-state assumptions.

Main source groups

  • con-plan-2026: Conservative live policy page; used to identify current pledge wording.
  • social-housing-2025: MHCLG social housing lettings statistics; registers and new lettings.
  • public-funds-2025: Home Office public-funds guidance; limits migrant-benefit assumptions.
  • obr-efo-mar-2026: OBR March 2026 forecast; fiscal and macro baseline.
  • chetty-hendren-katz-2016: Neighbourhood effects; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.
  • fack-grenet-2010: Schools and housing prices; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.