PolicyLens

Methodology note

Repeal post-1979 strike restrictions: calculation note

Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.

View main policy page: Repeal post-1979 strike restrictions

Central fiscal result

+GBP 2.0bn - Net public-finance impact in 2027-28

Low case: +GBP 0.0bn. High case: +GBP 10.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Remove post-1979 strike restrictions, including limits on ballots, picketing and solidarity action.
  • Baseline is current law and published official data unless stated.
  • Private business costs are excluded unless they affect tax or procurement.
  • Target year is 2027-28, with later years shown separately.

Affected population

  • Unit is workers, unions, employers and strike days.
  • DBT estimates 6.67m employee union members.
  • Public-sector union density is 49.9%.
  • Future strike behaviour is not predictable.

Gross impact

  • DBT estimates union density at 22.0% in 2024.
  • Official repeal costs for recent strike laws are near zero administratively.
  • Central adds GBP 1.50bn public pay/disruption pressure.
  • High case allows multi-sector strike-year costs.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Public-sector pay settlement pressure: +GBP 1.00bn
  • Strike disruption and contingency: +GBP 1.00bn
  • Administration and legal transition: +GBP 0.10bn
  • Tax and NI offsets: -GBP 0.10bn
  • Lower recent-law compliance costs: +GBP 0.00bn

Central net impact: +GBP 2.0bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes legal repeal with little behaviour change.
  • Central assumes stronger public-sector bargaining pressure.
  • High case assumes more strike days and solidarity action.
  • Employers may reduce hiring where wage pressure rises.
  • Output loss is not fully monetised.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.3bn. Legal transition.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 2.0bn. Bargaining response.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 2.5bn. Disputes may widen.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 3.0bn. Settlement effects persist.

Main source groups

  • S1: S1 DBT: union density 22.0% and 6.67m employee union members.
  • S2: S2 DBT: public-sector density 49.9%.
  • S3: S3 OECD/AIAS: bargaining coverage about 40.2%.
  • S4: S4 Commons Library: trade-union law baseline.
  • S5: S5 Farber/Frandsen: unions raise covered-worker pay.