PolicyLens

Methodology note

Require human review of workplace AI: calculation note

Scenario estimate showing gross costs, offsets and behavioural uncertainty; not an official costing.

View main policy page: Require human review of workplace AI

Central fiscal result

+GBP 1.0bn - Net public-finance impact in 2027-28

Low case: +GBP 0.2bn. High case: +GBP 4.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Require assessments, worker consultation and human review for AI hiring, monitoring and discipline.
  • Baseline is current law and published official data unless stated.
  • Private business costs are excluded unless they affect tax or procurement.
  • Target year is 2027-28, with later years shown separately.

Affected population

  • Unit is employers and AI-covered decisions.
  • No official affected-count estimate exists.
  • Public-sector systems are directly fiscal.
  • Private compliance costs are mostly off-budget.

Gross impact

  • Central public-sector compliance cost is GBP 0.60bn.
  • Regulator and enforcement capacity adds GBP 0.25bn.
  • Public procurement/audit duties add GBP 0.20bn.
  • No fiscal value is assigned to delayed AI productivity.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Public AI audits and compliance: +GBP 0.60bn
  • Regulator and enforcement capacity: +GBP 0.25bn
  • Procurement and systems changes: +GBP 0.20bn
  • Tax/receipt effects: -GBP 0.05bn

Central net impact: +GBP 1.0bn in 2027-28.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes high-risk-only rules.
  • Central assumes public-sector audit duties and enforcement.
  • High case assumes broad human-review rights.
  • Employers may delay AI deployment.
  • Bias reduction benefits are not monetised.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: +GBP 0.3bn. Regulator setup.
  • 2027-28: +GBP 1.0bn. Main compliance year.
  • 2028-29: +GBP 0.9bn. Audits repeat.
  • 2029-30: +GBP 0.8bn. Systems mature.

Main source groups

  • S1: S1 UK white paper: baseline is principles-led AI regulation.
  • S2: S2 Commons Library: workplace AI raises contestability and transparency issues.
  • S3: S3 OECD: AI creates productivity opportunities and worker risks.
  • S4: S4 Acemoglu/Restrepo: automation can displace work.
  • S5: S5 NBER vacancies evidence: AI changes skill demand.