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Methodology note

Create a 150,000-removals force: calculation note

Scenario assumptions behind the Create a 150,000-removals force estimate. The figures are illustrative and exclude unrelated Conservative pledges.

View main policy page: Create a 150,000-removals force

Central fiscal result

-GBP 1.0bn - Net fiscal impact in 2028-29

Low case: -GBP 3.5bn. High case: +GBP 2.0bn. Positive numbers are fiscal costs or borrowing pressure. Negative numbers are Exchequer savings or receipts.

Scenario and baseline

  • Model removals capacity rising to 150,000 per year by 2028-29.
  • Central case assumes 70,000 additional achieved removals by target year.
  • Baseline uses current Home Office asylum and removals administration.
  • Excludes uncosted treaty or third-country processing deals.

Affected population

  • Affected population is people subject to removal action, not all migrants.
  • Direct exposure includes asylum seekers, illegal entrants and foreign national offenders.
  • Indirect exposure includes Home Office staff, courts, employers and local services.
  • Achieved-removal counts are more important than nominal capacity.

Gross impact

  • Central support saving: 70,000 cases x GBP 25,000 = GBP 1.75bn.
  • Operational cost: detention, casework and travel about GBP 0.75bn.
  • Lost receipts and legal costs reduce net saving to about GBP 1bn.
  • High-cost case assumes capacity built but removals under-deliver.

Fiscal build-up, central case

  • Asylum support and accommodation savings: -GBP 1.8bn
  • Enforcement, detention and flights: +GBP 0.6bn
  • Legal, casework and appeals: +GBP 0.2bn
  • Lost tax and economic activity: GBP 0.0bn

Central net impact: -GBP 1.0bn in 2028-29.

Behaviour and pass-through

  • Low case assumes high achieved-removal rates and falling accommodation use.
  • Central case assumes capacity grows but removals lag the stated target.
  • High-cost case assumes legal delays and expensive detention dominate savings.
  • Employers may substitute domestic or other migrant labour, but not immediately.
  • No deterrence saving is scored without evidence on future arrivals.

Phasing

  • 2026-27: -GBP 0.2bn. Preparation or partial implementation.
  • 2027-28: -GBP 0.6bn. Main ramp-up year.
  • 2028-29: -GBP 1.0bn. Target-year central estimate.
  • 2029-30: -GBP 1.0bn. Continuation at steady-state assumptions.

Main source groups

  • con-plan-2026: Conservative live policy page; used to identify current pledge wording.
  • con-borders-2025: Conservative BORDERS plan; used for removals-force capacity assumption.
  • home-office-irregular-2026: Home Office irregular-migration statistics; arrivals baseline.
  • home-office-asylum-2026: Home Office immigration statistics; asylum and removals baseline.
  • obr-efo-mar-2026: OBR March 2026 forecast; fiscal and macro baseline.
  • dustmann-frattini-2014: Fiscal effects of immigration; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.
  • manacorda-manning-wadsworth-2012: Immigration and wages; informs behavioural and incidence assumptions.