Create a 150,000-removals force

Capacity target

The BORDERS plan proposes removals capacity of 150,000 people per year. The costable scenario includes enforcement, detention, legal processing, flights and accommodation savings where removals actually occur.

• Capacity does not equal achieved removals.
• Legal and diplomatic constraints are material.
• Hotel and support savings are the main fiscal upside.

Core trade-offs

Faster removals may cut asylum-support costs if lawful and deliverable. It also requires expensive detention and enforcement capacity and may reduce labour supply where removals cover people already working or studying.

• Taxpayers gain from lower support costs if removals happen.
• Home Office faces major operational costs.
• GDP effects depend on who is removed.

Fiscal impact by 2028-29

-GBP 3.5bn to +GBP 2.0bn. Central estimate: -GBP 1.0bn.

• Positive numbers mean net fiscal cost; negative numbers mean Exchequer savings.
• Main cost is enforcement and detention capacity.
• Main offset is lower asylum accommodation and support.
• Capacity does not guarantee achieved removals.
• This is not an official costing.

Economic impact by 2028-29

• Jobs: Could reduce labour supply in exposed sectors if working migrants are removed.
• Wages: Some low-wage pressure may ease; evidence for large native wage gains is weak.
• Prices: Higher costs possible in food, care, hospitality and construction if labour supply tightens.
• GDP / productivity: Likely negative if removals reduce labour supply more than public costs.

Assessment

The fiscal range is wide because the pledge is capacity-based, not a detailed removals pipeline. Savings require lawful, repeated removals to countries willing to receive people, while detention, appeals, flights and enforcement costs are front-loaded.

Confidence: Low. Policy target is clear; legality, international agreements and achieved-removal rates are the weak assumptions.

Main risks

• Legal constraint: Domestic and international legal challenges can delay removals and increase detention costs.
• Capacity bottleneck: Detention, casework, flights and destination agreements must all scale together.
• Labour supply: Removing people already working can reduce output and tax receipts.

Safeguards

• Publish eligible-removal cohorts and legal basis.
• Separate capacity costs from achieved removals.
• Track labour-market and sector impacts.

Academic evidence

UK government evidence

Sources

• PolicyLens methodology: Create a 150,000-removals force Internal - PolicyLens, 2026
• Controlling immigration: speech and BORDERS plan Party policy source - Conservative Party, 2025
• Irregular migration to the UK statistics UK government statistics - Home Office, 2026
• Immigration system statistics quarterly release UK government statistics - Home Office, 2026
• Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026 Fiscal forecast - Office for Budget Responsibility, 2026
• The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK Academic article - Dustmann and Frattini, Economic Journal, 2014
• The Impact of Immigration on the Structure of Wages Academic article - Manacorda, Manning and Wadsworth, Review of Economic Studies, 2012
• Our Plan for Britain Party policy source - Conservative Party, 2026

Other Conservative policies

• Cut welfare spending by GBP 23bn
• Cut 132,000 Civil Service posts
• Restrict social housing to UK nationals
• Cut overseas aid by GBP 7bn
• Cut net-zero subsidies by GBP 1.6bn
• Abolish stamp duty on main homes
• Abolish rates for high-street firms
• Create a GBP 5,000 First Job Bonus